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Tom_unoduetre
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Message 850 - Posted: 5 Feb 2015, 13:03:36 UTC

Hi,

is there some rough estimation on how much of the whole project we have calculated so far and how long it still might run?

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Message 852 - Posted: 5 Feb 2015, 13:58:40 UTC - in response to Message 850.

Hi,

is there some rough estimation on how much of the whole project we have calculated so far and how long it still might run?


http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/vstats_new/crus-stats.htm

The progress included all projects like Primegrid, mersenne (PRPnet) and another non BOINC projects. I bet it will take around 50+ years to get all bases done depends on the power of the hardware (in future there could be done more in time).

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Message 853 - Posted: 5 Feb 2015, 16:23:11 UTC - in response to Message 850.
Last modified: 5 Feb 2015, 16:26:38 UTC

Hi,

is there some rough estimation on how much of the whole project we have calculated so far


No.

...and how long it still might run?


The definitive, best, and only possible answer to that question is "Sometime between right now and the end of time." :)

These conjecture projects are of indeterminate length and there's no way to estimate how long they will take. They can *literally* take forever if a conjecture is false.

Just looking at base 2 -- and only base 2 -- you have two projects that have been running a decade or more -- Seventeen or Bust and RieselSieve (now called "The Riesel Problem" on PrimeGrid).

R2 is in the n=7,000,000 vicinity and S2 is at n=29,000,000. A single S2 task at the lower n=27,000,000 range where PrimeGrid is currently searching, on a *VERY* fast computer, takes about 4 days.

That's just base two.

Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures.

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Message 1269 - Posted: 11 Apr 2015, 16:35:27 UTC

Sorry for a very late answer. I finally managed to put a spreadsheet together and therefor can tell you exactly how far the 1029 bases has been worked (overall). The numbers is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,666,728,089,611 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,793,898,322 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,167,521,987,933 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

346,245 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
99,806 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
446,051 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,167,522,433,984 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

8,911,539,787 Total k's tested or primed

0.0012619423926% of k's tested or primed
99.9987380576074% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

All these numbers is of 11th April 2015.

As everyone can see, we have quite a while to go. What could really bring the number of tested or primed k's up, would be if more people dedicated their ressources to get the untested k's tested to n=25K.

Take care

KEP

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Message 1270 - Posted: 11 Apr 2015, 19:16:09 UTC - in response to Message 1269.

Thx KEP, should be 1030 bases. It would be more interesting to list the completed bases and how many are left and how many are done last year+

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Message 1271 - Posted: 11 Apr 2015, 20:39:30 UTC - in response to Message 1270.

Thanks Reb, your ideas are good and I'll see how I can add it to the information, when I publish my next statistical update. I'm not sure, that I can say (without a lot of digging on the Mersenneforum) when a base was completed. But I'll try and see how much information I can dig out and add to my spreadsheet. The reason I made the spreadsheet itself, is that it is more or less self updating, but besides having to read through a lot of reservations about a lot of completed/done bases, it really shouldn't be impossible to add what you are suggesting. To sum up, I'll look into your suggestion and see what can be done. I'll try to make a monthly update :)

On a final note. We are only searching the bases 2 to 1030 (1029 bases). Base 1 isn't excisting in any shape or size, so it is not accounted for. However what is somewhat funny is that we are searching more than 1030 conjectures on both sides, due to the more than 1 conjecture for base 2 :)

Also a funny note, if we completed testing R280 to a minimum of n=1, then we would reduce the untested k's with about 72,731547 % :)

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Message 1291 - Posted: 13 Apr 2015, 4:58:12 UTC

Thx KEP, should be 1030 bases. It would be more interesting to list the completed bases and how many are left and how many are done last year+


A lot of the statistics can be found here. Look at Overall Progress

http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/
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Message 1366 - Posted: 28 Apr 2015, 9:01:29 UTC - in response to Message 853.
Last modified: 28 Apr 2015, 9:18:31 UTC

[quote]Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures.


This is not quite correct. All Riesel and Sierp bases on the project have a conjectured k-value that has a fully proven covering set of factors such that it is composite for all n's. None of the conjectures can be false. Hence the project is proven as not infinite; just very huge. What can be false is whether the conjectured k-value for each of these bases is the lowest one. That is what we have set out to do. So technically the project could be slightly smaller but no bigger than what it currently appears. So far we have proven that the k-value is the lowest one for about 36-37% of the bases. But in none of those proven cases is the conjecture > 2500, hence the difficulty of the larger-conjectured bases.

No one here will be alive when all of these bases are proven. Further, likely no one here will be alive when simply Riesel base 2 is proven. It is likely to be several hundred (or thousand) years barring a new form of computing. At the current time for just that single base, all of the computers on earth running full time could not prove the conjecture in our lifetime. Both Riesel and Sierp base 2 were conjectured over 50 years ago. Great progress has been made but the amount of computing time already expended is only a small drop in the bucket of how much it will ultimately take to prove them.

Finally, the project is grateful to have the help of the BOINC community. It puts the proof of many of these conjectures within our grasp that otherwise would not be.

Gary

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Message 1367 - Posted: 28 Apr 2015, 15:46:27 UTC - in response to Message 1366.

[quote]Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures.


This is not quite correct. All Riesel and Sierp bases on the project have a conjectured k-value that has a fully proven covering set of factors such that it is composite for all n's. None of the conjectures can be false. Hence the project is proven as not infinite; just very huge. What can be false is whether the conjectured k-value for each of these bases is the lowest one. That is what we have set out to do. So technically the project could be slightly smaller but no bigger than what it currently appears. So far we have proven that the k-value is the lowest one for about 36-37% of the bases. But in none of those proven cases is the conjecture > 2500, hence the difficulty of the larger-conjectured bases.

No one here will be alive when all of these bases are proven. Further, likely no one here will be alive when simply Riesel base 2 is proven. It is likely to be several hundred (or thousand) years barring a new form of computing. At the current time for just that single base, all of the computers on earth running full time could not prove the conjecture in our lifetime. Both Riesel and Sierp base 2 were conjectured over 50 years ago. Great progress has been made but the amount of computing time already expended is only a small drop in the bucket of how much it will ultimately take to prove them.

Finally, the project is grateful to have the help of the BOINC community. It puts the proof of many of these conjectures within our grasp that otherwise would not be.

Gary


Thx for the explanation. But with more luck and of course more power in the future we can beat all bases in our lifetime ;)

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Message 1408 - Posted: 11 May 2015, 18:18:52 UTC

As of 11th of May 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,666,728,089,611 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,793,854,053 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,167,521,943,664 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

345,678 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
99,692 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
445,370 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,167,522,389,034 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

8,911,584,737 Total k's tested or primed

0.0012619487579% of k's tested or primed
99,9987380512421% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 1563 - Posted: 13 Jun 2015, 17:12:10 UTC

As of 13th of June 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,666,728,089,611 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,793,800,265 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,167,521,889,876 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

338,531 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
99,750 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
438,281 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,167,522,328,157 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

8,911,645,614 Total k's tested or primed

0,0012619573785% of k's tested or primed
99,9987380426215% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 1643 - Posted: 11 Jul 2015, 14:07:40 UTC

As of 11th of July 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,666,830,044,382 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,793,760,809 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,167,623,805,191 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

334,631 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
99,267 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
433,898 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,167,624,239,089 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

8,809,734,682 Total k's tested or primed

0.0012475260088% of k's tested or primed
99.9987524739912% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

Ps. I know it appears, according to last months update, that we have done less work, however we have cleared more k's since last update, only now the stats doesn't count the "Just started" bases as tested or primed. So now we have at least a clear statistics on what actually remains and what actually has been done. Sorry for the mistake. To those of you who wonders, the reduction in the cleared k stats is because R66 is only "Just started" and not completed on the CRUS website.

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Message 1792 - Posted: 12 Aug 2015, 14:59:00 UTC

As of 12th of August 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,666,830,044,382 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,793,760,809 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,167,623,805,191 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

335,219 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
98,980 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
434,199 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,167,623,159,513 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

8,810,814,258 Total k's tested or primed

0.0012476788851% of k's tested or primed
99.9987523211149% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 1853 - Posted: 12 Sep 2015, 14:28:48 UTC

As of 12th of September 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,663,135,044,382 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,792,813,834 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,163,927,858,216 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

381,929 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
104,191 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
486,120 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,163,928,344,336 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

12,505,629,435 Total k's tested or primed

0.0017708930564% of k's tested or primed
99.9982291069436% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 1940 - Posted: 11 Oct 2015, 10:58:23 UTC

As of 11th of October 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,662,030,741,312 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,966,038,986 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,162,996,780,298 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

394,106 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
104,128 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
498,234 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,162,997,278,532 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

13,436,695,239 Total k's tested or primed

0.0019027391163% of k's tested or primed
99.9980972608837% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 2067 - Posted: 13 Nov 2015, 14:40:15 UTC

As of 13th of November 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,657,928,745,421 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,966,277,774 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,158,895,023,195 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

631,680 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
104,862 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
736,542 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,158,895,759,737 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

17,538,214,034 Total k's tested or primed

0.0024835456396% of k's tested or primed
99.9975164543604% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 2173 - Posted: 12 Dec 2015, 13:28:25 UTC

As of 12th of December 2015 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,657,928,745,421 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,965,099,818 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,158,893,845,239 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

632,990 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
108,552 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
741,542 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,158,894,586,781 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

17,539,386,990 Total k's tested or primed

0.0024837117392% of k's tested or primed
99.9975162882608% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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Message 2280 - Posted: 17 Jan 2016, 12:47:38 UTC

As of 17th of January 2016 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,216,083 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,688 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,973,771 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,657,928,745,421 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,965,032,516 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,158,893,777,937 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

629,775 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
108,674 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
738,449 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,158,894,516,386 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

17,539,457,385 Total k's tested or primed

0.0024837217077% of k's tested or primed
99.9975162782923% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

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Message 2351 - Posted: 13 Feb 2016, 13:40:35 UTC

Note to this update: I've had to make a correction on the even bases, since k=1 is not included in the conjectures. It is all to our benefit but for the aware user, it is the explanation as to why the amount of k's needing to be tested has gone down :)

As of 13th of February 2016 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,215,566 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,170 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,972,736 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,651,428,745,347 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,965,032,442 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,152,393,777,789 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

672,889 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
108,444 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
781,333 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,152,394,559,122 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

24,039,413,614 Total k's tested or primed

0.0034041653697% of k's tested or primed
99.9965958346303% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

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Message 2419 - Posted: 13 Mar 2016, 14:06:47 UTC - in response to Message 2351.

As of 13th of March 2016 the progress is as follows:

563,674,901,215,566 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,170 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,972,736 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,648,428,786,785 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,500,965,007,632 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,149,393,794,417 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

707,504 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
108,581 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
816,085 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,149,394,610,502 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

27,039,362,234 Total k's tested or primed

0.0038289811063% of k's tested or primed
99.9961710188937% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Regards

KEP

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