Overall project progress?

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ID: 850 · Rating: 0 · rate:
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Hi, http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/vstats_new/crus-stats.htm The progress included all projects like Primegrid, mersenne (PRPnet) and another non BOINC projects. I bet it will take around 50+ years to get all bases done depends on the power of the hardware (in future there could be done more in time). | |

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Hi, No. ...and how long it still might run? The definitive, best, and only possible answer to that question is "Sometime between right now and the end of time." :) These conjecture projects are of indeterminate length and there's no way to estimate how long they will take. They can *literally* take forever if a conjecture is false. Just looking at base 2 -- and only base 2 -- you have two projects that have been running a decade or more -- Seventeen or Bust and RieselSieve (now called "The Riesel Problem" on PrimeGrid). R2 is in the n=7,000,000 vicinity and S2 is at n=29,000,000. A single S2 task at the lower n=27,000,000 range where PrimeGrid is currently searching, on a *VERY* fast computer, takes about 4 days. That's just base two. Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures. | |

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Sorry for a very late answer. I finally managed to put a spreadsheet together and therefor can tell you exactly how far the 1029 bases has been worked (overall). The numbers is as follows: | |

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Thx KEP, should be 1030 bases. It would be more interesting to list the completed bases and how many are left and how many are done last year+ | |

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Thanks Reb, your ideas are good and I'll see how I can add it to the information, when I publish my next statistical update. I'm not sure, that I can say (without a lot of digging on the Mersenneforum) when a base was completed. But I'll try and see how much information I can dig out and add to my spreadsheet. The reason I made the spreadsheet itself, is that it is more or less self updating, but besides having to read through a lot of reservations about a lot of completed/done bases, it really shouldn't be impossible to add what you are suggesting. To sum up, I'll look into your suggestion and see what can be done. I'll try to make a monthly update :) | |

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Thx KEP, should be 1030 bases. It would be more interesting to list the completed bases and how many are left and how many are done last year+ A lot of the statistics can be found here. Look at Overall Progress http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/ ____________ | |

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[quote]Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures. This is not quite correct. All Riesel and Sierp bases on the project have a conjectured k-value that has a fully proven covering set of factors such that it is composite for all n's. None of the conjectures can be false. Hence the project is proven as not infinite; just very huge. What can be false is whether the conjectured k-value for each of these bases is the lowest one. That is what we have set out to do. So technically the project could be slightly smaller but no bigger than what it currently appears. So far we have proven that the k-value is the lowest one for about 36-37% of the bases. But in none of those proven cases is the conjecture > 2500, hence the difficulty of the larger-conjectured bases. No one here will be alive when all of these bases are proven. Further, likely no one here will be alive when simply Riesel base 2 is proven. It is likely to be several hundred (or thousand) years barring a new form of computing. At the current time for just that single base, all of the computers on earth running full time could not prove the conjecture in our lifetime. Both Riesel and Sierp base 2 were conjectured over 50 years ago. Great progress has been made but the amount of computing time already expended is only a small drop in the bucket of how much it will ultimately take to prove them. Finally, the project is grateful to have the help of the BOINC community. It puts the proof of many of these conjectures within our grasp that otherwise would not be. Gary | |

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[quote]Chances are anyone currently asking the question today won't live long enough to see the completion. And, of course, if any of the 2000+ conjectures comprising this project are false, the project length is effectively infinite and the project will never be able to prove all of the conjectures. Thx for the explanation. But with more luck and of course more power in the future we can beat all bases in our lifetime ;) | |

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As of 11th of May 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 13th of June 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 11th of July 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 12th of August 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 12th of September 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 11th of October 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 13th of November 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 12th of December 2015 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 17th of January 2016 the progress is as follows: | |

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As of 13th of February 2016 the progress is as follows: 563,674,901,215,566 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases) 142,501,532,757,170 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases) 706,176,433,972,736 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)563,651,428,745,347 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases) 142,500,965,032,442 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases) 706,152,393,777,789 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)672,889 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases) 108,444 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases) 781,333 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)706,152,394,559,122 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)24,039,413,614 Total k's tested or primed0.0034041653697% of k's tested or primed 99.9965958346303% of k's remaining untested or unprimed Regards KEP | |

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As of 13th of March 2016 the progress is as follows: | |

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